How close our price predictions were

• A hit means the real price landed inside the range we published, edges included. We predict a band, not a figure, so that is the claim being tested.
• A miss is measured from the nearest edge of the band, as a percentage of the price that actually arrived — not from the middle, which would hide how wide a band was, and not as a share of the band, which would let us look accurate by guessing vaguely.
• We do not publish a percentage until 12 predictions have settled. We are at 6. A rate off this few would be a rounding artefact, and on this page it would read as a boast built from a handful of calls.
• Only our model-level band is scored.We also store per-trim estimates, but a settled price is the model's entry-level figure — grading a top-trim estimate against it would score a correct forecast as a wild miss. 29 per-trim estimates were set aside for that reason.
• Open estimates are not scored, and not hidden. 91 estimates are still open — the vehicle has not gone on sale here at a verified price yet. A further 56 were closed without a confirmed figure and cannot be scored either way.

An estimate nobody ever checks is free to make. Scoring ours in public is the only thing that makes the next one worth reading — and it is why our estimates are always labelled as estimates and never written into a vehicle's price. Ajit Narayan Singh, Editor, is responsible for these forecasts and for this page. See also our corrections record, which covers published figures we had to change, and the editorial policy behind both.